So inflation's down. 

Or more accurately, as Ed Balls was keen to correct a flailing Laura Trott, the chief secretary to the Treasury, live on yesterday's breakast TV, it's going up a bit less fast.

But what are the more detailed implications of where we are as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak continues to aim for his declared goal of 2%?

The Federation of Small Businesses has given a cautious nod to yesterday's news on the latest inflation rates.

A further fall in annual inflation is good news for any expansion plans shopkeepers and smaller traders and businesses might have, the FSB says - even if it still believes the wider economic picture remains unsettled.

Against the backdrop of yesterday's CPI rise by 3.2% in the year to March 2024 (down from 3.4% in February), is there a sense that the heat is now coming off small businesses?

Tina McKenzie, FSB Policy Chair, thinks so: "March's fall in the annual consumer price inflation rate takes some more of the heat out of rising prices for small businesses. It's difficult to overstate the toll that the cost of doing business crisis exacted on small firms, so further signs that its worst effects are firmly behind us are very welcome.

"Small business owners know all too well that they can never be complacent, especially in an economic situation characterised by sluggish growth and rising unemployment."

Amid some early indications that small business confidence levels are recovering, she said the evidence - if it translates into investment and expansion plans being put into action by small firms - is good news for economic growth prospects.

She added: "Small firms will now turn their eyes and their hopes to the Bank of England, and will hope that the base rate cut many have been eagerly awaiting arrives sooner rather than later. We don't want to risk stifling the small upward movement in GDP recorded in the first two months of this year."

Key to that, she added, was more focus in Westminster: "We're calling again for the government and for politicians of all stripes to think very hard about how they can best support small business growth, to provide the best possible platform for entrepreneurs to start up new ventures, and for existing businesses to expand and thrive.

"Small business owners will be watching carefully to see what is being proposed to help them in this election year. Policies which are targeted at helping small businesses to grow, take on staff, and innovate are needed, so that green shoots can take root and flourish."

However, from its perspective at the heavier end of the economy, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) still thinks the road into the rest of 2024 is going to be one best travelled with a firmly buckled seatbelt.

Alpesh Paleja, CBI Lead Economist, said: "While March's fall in inflation was smaller than expected, it's still likely to move closer to the Bank of England's 2% target in the next few months. But the path beyond this will be bumpy - the CPI rate is likely to rise again in the second half of 2024, thanks to base effects from energy prices.

"The Bank of England will look through these ups and downs, so it's still likely that they will cut interest rates this summer. But it's notable that inflation is now higher than the Bank expected, and in view of this they will also be keeping one eye on the resilience in pay growth."

Recent developments in the Middle East, he added, could also slow the path of inflation back down, if they feed through to higher global energy prices.

He concluded: "Therefore, while it's reasonable to expect some loosening in monetary policy ahead, this is by no means a done deal."

But as perhaps the most vital perspective for Gloucestershire, which owes so much of its economic vigour to the hospitality and ents sector, Hospitality UK has also thrown its perspective into the debate - and with an eye on increased wages, it said it's over to the banking sector now to step in and help.

Kate Nicholls, Chief Executive of UKHospitality, said inflation's move south is undoubtedly very positive for the economy, but added: "We now need to see this reflected in an easing of interest rates, which will reduce costs for businesses and incentivise investment in growth."

She said: "This is particularly important for parts of the economy where prices are more stubborn, like hospitality. Inflation in our sector is more than 50% higher than the national figure and this is before we see the effect of the £3.4bn increase in rates and wages which hit the sector this month.

"With a clear trend of inflation easing across the economy, it's time for central banks to support businesses and drive investment."

● Punchline-Gloucester.com says: "A significant issue emerges as we look at inflation and second guess where it may go in 2024. Gloucestershire's visitor economy was worth £966m in 2019 alone according to Shire Hall research; post-pandemic, with hospitality contributing £93 billion to the UK economy, employing 3.5m people and generating £54 billion of tax for the Treasury, this crucial cog needs to keep turning. If we don't see measures in play here in Gloucestershire to ensure that, we will all be held back along the way."